Intel Expects to Sell 100 Million CPUs for AI PCs by 2025

We've all heard of this new thing called AI PCs. They're computers with a CPU with a built-in neural processing unit (NPU), which is hardware designed to tackle AI and machine learning tasks. Both Intel and AMD are on board this hype train, as both companies now have NPUs in some of their CPUs and are projecting AI PCs will begin to take over the consumer PC market in the coming year. Now, an Intel VP has put a number on this category's projected growth, as he recently stated Intel expects to sell 100 million of its newest CPUs with an NPU through the year 2025.

Intel vice president of client computing David Feng sat down with Nikkei Asia to discuss AI PCs (thanks, TechPowerUp). Intel only offers NPUs in its Core Ultra mobile CPUs but expects to sell 40 million in 2024 and 60 million in 2025. For context, according to AnandTech, Jon Peddie Research estimated that 66 million client CPUs were sold in the last quarter of 2023. Hence, 100 million CPUs over two years represents a small yet significant number of the total number of chips sold per year. Intel's Feng said this number will likely represent roughly 20% of the global PC market by 2025.

Intel is still in the process of educating consumers on the advantage of NPU performance and what kinds of "experiences" it enables. Credit: Intel

One of the challenges Intel faces in bringing this technology to market is educating consumers on what an AI PC is and what it can do. Part of that strategy will require it to get consumers to look beyond raw specs and CPU benchmarks to understand a chip's AI capabilities, which are still in the early stages of being defined by Intel and Microsoft. In the future, customers will have to be made aware of what kinds of services and experiences a CPU can offer instead of just its multithreaded performance. Feng stated, "Now we are truly in the business of selling experiences. ... I am describing something that can only be brought to life by software, so there is an increasing need for having collaborations with application developers."

Feng said it's working with Microsoft to help define what makes a computer an "AI PC." But right now, it consists of three parts: The CPU with an NPU, Windows Copilot, and a dedicated Copilot key on the keyboard. Microsoft has begun adding a Copilot key to some OEM laptop keyboards. Still, it remains to be seen if it will ever appear on external keyboards that desktop users prefer. Copilot is also only offered with Windows 11 right now, likely inhibiting adoption since most Windows users still use Windows 10.

The company also doesn't offer NPUs in its desktop chips but will likely remedy this situation when it launches Arrow Lake for desktops later this year. AMD previously only offered NPUs on some of its mobile CPUs but recently added desktop CPUs with NPUs to its portfolio with its 8000G APUs.

Intel has big plans for so-called AI PCs; as it previously stated, it will deliver a 5x increase in AI performance by 2025. Later this year, it's expected to deliver next-generation architectures with NPUs, including Arrow Lake for desktop and Lunar Lake for low-power mobile. The Nikkei Asia article states that all major PC manufacturers besides Apple have announced plans to introduce AI PCs in 2024, with Acer's chairman saying generative AI on PCs is now the company's top priority.