Big changes could be coming to the Arctic. A new study projects that the Arctic might see its first "ice-free" days in 80,000 years within the next decade. Given the world's struggle to lower fossil fuel usage, the researchers believe this switchover is inevitable, even if it takes a bit longer. There are likely to be serious ecological consequences from Arctic thawing, but it may be possible to reverse it with bold climate action.
The study, published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, reviewed data on ice coverage and temperatures. The gist is that our predictions of Arctic thawing may have been too conservative. The team, led by Alexandra Jahn of the University of Colorado Boulder, calculated that the first "blue Arctic" days could arrive in a decade or less. Previous analyses showed that wasn't a concern until the 2040s.
According to the researchers, the Arctic could see consistently ice-free Septembers as soon as 2035 or as late as 2067. The precise timing is dependent on how quickly we can reduce fossil fuel usage. Based on recent history, it'll probably be closer to 2035. However, this does not mean there won't be any ice in the Arctic. The definition of "ice-free" here means less than 1 million square kilometers of coverage, meaning most of the Arctic would be open water without large patches of contiguous ice. Much of the remaining ice would be clustered around land masses like Greenland, disrupting the habitats of animals, including seals and polar bears, that rely on expansive Arctic ice.
It's not all gloom and doom. While losing sea ice in the Arctic would have consequences, we could fix it. Sea ice cycles naturally throughout the year, and it's already floating. Thus, it does not contribute to a rise in sea levels. If we can succeed in lowering levels of greenhouse gasses in the future, the blue Arctic could go back to white in as little as a decade. Compare that to the Greenland ice sheet, which is also experiencing accelerated melting. This meltwater does increase overall sea levels, and the melting could disrupt ocean currents that are essential to moderating weather and distributing nutrients. It took thousands of years for the ice sheet to grow, so it won't come back quickly even if we can get emissions under control.
If we cannot make any progress on climate change, the ice-free conditions in the Arctic will only become more common. The study predicts that high emissions could lead to ice-free conditions in the Arctic from May through January every year by the late 21st century. If we can moderate emissions somewhat, the Arctic may only be ice-free from August to October by 2100.
