The International Energy Agency, an independent organization tasked with providing analyses and policy recommendations to the global energy sector, shared Tuesday that the world needs 50 million miles of new transmission lines before 2040 to meet demand. For context, that’s the size of the world’s entire electrical grid built over the last century…but with an 18-year deadline.
Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions, the IEA’s latest report, takes stock of the global grid and calculates the resources required to ensure long-term energy security. While oil is still the biggest contributor to global final energy consumption, electricity’s concentration has grown from 16% to 21% between 2000 and 2022. This increase is mainly due to population growth, industrial density, environmental goals, and a warming planet, the last of which has prompted a bump in cooling-related energy usage.
While demand for electricity increases roughly 2.1% per year in “advanced economies,” it grows by 3.1% per year in “emerging market and developing economies” (EMDEs). This translates to a massive increase in demand between now and 2040, and that demand can only be met by building new transmission lines and replacing old ones. This is where the IEA’s 50 million mile (or, in its words, 80 million kilometers) estimate comes in.
Gridlock would be the most immediate ramification of failing to meet this goal—and it would be felt more widely in the United States than in other developed regions such as Germany or Great Britain. The United States’ annual transmission grid congestion costs have more than doubled over the last two years, suggesting a troubling difficulty keeping Americans connected. Without sufficient transmission lines to keep Americans connected to the grid, residences, businesses, and public resources risk going dark.
Failing to build out infrastructure would also mean dire consequences for the climate, the IEA reports. Many countries aim to gradually replace major sources of gas consumption (like cars) with electrical versions, thus straining the energy grid. There are also roughly 1,500 gigawatts of renewable clean energy projects in “advanced stages of development” pending grid integration. These projects can’t be connected until the appropriate transmission lines are in place.
In a press release published alongside its report, the IEA writes that a “lack of ambition and attention risks making electricity grids the weak link in clean energy transitions.” Though many experts argue the world’s climate goals aren’t aggressive enough, even those in place are in danger of failing without sufficient connectivity.
