PC DRAM Prices May Have Hit Rock Bottom

If you've been eyeballing an extra pair of memory sticks to speed up your gaming rig, now would be the time to pull the trigger. The PC DRAM (and NAND flash) industries have weathered a severe downturn over the past six months, and it seems to have reached its nadir now that we're halfway through the year. According to a new report, the price drops we've been enjoying have slowed to a trickle, indicating the financial wound is practically cauterized at this point. Prices will continue to fall in Q3, but not by much.

The new report is by industry analyst Trendforce (via Tom's Hardware), which credits the slowdown in price reductions to two factors: memory makers previously slowing production and seasonal demand. All the big memory manufacturers had previously announced they were curtailing production of new memory chips due to excessive inventory in the channel, and it appears that strategy has paid off. In its latest report, Trendforce predicts memory inventory will still be high throughout the year, but prices overall for all PC DRAM will only fall 0~5% in the coming quarter.

Trendforce's research shows the bloodbath that affected the DRAM market recently seems to be coming to close. Credit: Trendforce

This applies to DDR4 and DDR5, though the latter is faring a bit better currently as companies have maintained high prices. This makes sense since DDR4 is practically ancient, and DDR5 is still relatively new to the market. The report said DDR4 would be in "oversupply" throughout the year, resulting in expected price drops of between 3 and 8%. DDR5 is expected to be a bit lower than that due to high prices and strong demand, resulting in an estimate of prices falling 0~5% overall.

In April, memory giant Samsung joined its rivals SK Hynix and Micron in reducing production after it saw an almost 96% reduction in profits for Q1 year-over-year. Back then, all three companies saw their customers pull back on memory orders for three consecutive quarters, resulting in the push to reign in supply to balance things out. In Q1, memory prices fell by up to 20% as the pandemic ended, and the PC market entered a tailspin as nobody upgraded or bought PCs.

That brutal period seems to be coming to an end now, though, just as predicted. However, DDR4 will likely enjoy another six months of relevance, as Intel's Raptor Lake refresh will undoubtedly support it thanks to the LGA 1700 platform. Although AMD has switched to DDR5 for its 7000-series CPUs, new AM4 chips like the Ryzen 5 5600X3D might also spur some folks to buy more DDR4.